6.27.2007

Democratic Congress May Help Fred Thompson's Campaign

I've been doing some ruminating, and I think that the current Democratically controlled Congress may actually help in getting Fred to the Oval Office. The logic goes thus:

  1. The American public, we've been told, likes a divided government. If one party holds Congress, they wish the other party to hold the White House. This serves as a block on proposals that are seen as too far right or too far left, we are told.
  2. Democrats, to be honest, appear to have a solid lock on Congress at least through the next election cycle. There's just not that many truly vulnerable seats, nor enough good candidates from the GOP, to change that, it seems. Of course, things could change, but that's the way it looks now.
  3. Therefore, if #1 and #2 above are correct, the public is going to be looking to keep a Republican in the White House.
  4. If the current leadership of Party of the Donkey in Congress swings even further to the left, or passes the Immigration fiasco bill, or both, that may anger enough people in the center to be looking for a strong counterbalance in the White House.
  5. If #4 is correct, then Fred is probably the man they'll be looking to.
    1. McCain is tied to the immigration debacle, so I have a real hard time seeing him surviving the primaries.
    2. Giuliani has some huge skeletons in his closet, some of which I've discussed before, and he's coming off one of his worst weeks ever; not to mention being pro-choice in a pro-life party. Rudy also has a tendency to "open mouth, insert foot" (as he's already done with the abortion question) that won't do him much good in the primaries.
    3. Romney is a serious contender, but his prior experience with a Democrat legislature isn't exactly stellar--in fact, it's downright Bush-like in his willingness to compromise just to get something passed--see his health-care package, for example.
  6. In contrast to the folks listed in #5, Fred has been speaking his mind, both when he was in Congress and now on the radio, on blogs, and in columns. He tells it like it is, sometimes with both barrels, and he's got a speaking style that is folksy enough that he can get away with things that Mayor Rudy can't (must be the drawl). In short, he may be another Great Communicator that will inspire the public to trust him with reining in a far-left controlled Congress.
  7. Therefore, I think we can place our money on Fred.
Of course, your mileage may vary, and all the usual disclaimers. But that's the way my ruminations have been going.