Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts

1.09.2008

Yet Another Reason I Don't Trust Polls

It's quite simple.

Here's the RealClearPolitics poll averages for the NH Democratic Primary:

New Hampshire Democratic Primary

Tuesday, January 8 | Delegates at Stake: 22

PollDateSpread
RCP Average01/05 to 01/07Obama +8.3
Suffolk/WHDH01/06 - 01/07Obama +5.0
American Res. Group01/06 - 01/07Obama +9.0
ReutersC-Span/Zogby01/05 - 01/07Obama +13.0
Rasmussen01/05 - 01/07Obama +7.0
CNN/WMUR/UNH01/05 - 01/06Obama +9.0
Marist01/05 - 01/06Obama +8.0
CBS News01/05 - 01/06Obama +7.0

Here's the actual results:

Democrats (100% reporting)

Candidate Raw # %
Hillary Clinton 112,251 39
Barack Obama 104,772 36
John Edwards 48,681 17
Bill Richardson 13,249 5
Dennis Kucinich 3,919 1
Total Write In 2,502 1
Joe Biden 628 0
Mike Gravel 402 0
Others 918 0

Any questions?

11.30.2007

This is Government of the People, by the People, for the People?

A reader of NRO's Corner blog had a comment, which I believe is worth repeating in its entirety.

What a beautiful primary season it's been. We're entering the finish line, without a single American having had the annoyance of having to cast a single vote in a single primary. Glad all the pundits, pollsters, and big-money backers took care of all that messy "democracy" business for us. You wonder what causes the insanity of pushing primaries forward farther and farther? Some non-beltway, non-money people, crazy as they are, would actually like the chance to pick their candidate. Now, apparently Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, instead of being the starting gate, are actually the finish line.
I can't say it any better than that, so I won't try.

9.07.2007

The World Speaks, I Yawn

A BBC World Services survey of twenty two countries indicates they believe the United States should withdraw from Iraq within a year. How thoughtful of the BBC to provide this revealing sentiment of the world just as Congress begins to grapple with the burgeoning success in Iraq.

Most people across the world think American troops should withdraw from Iraq within a year, according to a BBC poll published today.

The BBC World Service survey, released just before Congress receives a landmark report on George Bush's "surge", underlined the unpopularity of the president's Iraq policy.

In the poll, 39% of people in 22 countries said troops should leave now, and 28% backed a gradual withdrawal. Only 23% wanted them to stay until Iraq is safe.

[...]

That's 67% of the world wants the United States out of Iraq, sooner the better. That settles it for me. We should just get out. Or, maybe not.

However, that's more favorable than the (just my SWAG) 90% of elected democratics who want us out of Iraq immediately or within one year. We're not listening to those fools either.

The leaders of the US, Australia and Britain have all in recent days said troops must stay until the country is safe. All three countries say they have a commitment to the Iraqi people to remain there until local forces can ensure security. But Doug Miller of Globescan, which carried out the research for the BBC, said the results showed "the weight of global public opinion" was against them.

The weight of public opinion being against our continued presence in Iraq is not surprising. Our media has been telling us since March 2003 the world was against our presence in Iraq. This isn't news.

But just where does the bulk of this opposition come from?

Muslim countries including Indonesia (65%), Turkey (64%) and Egypt (58%) were among those most in favour of immediate withdrawal.
Curious, three heavily Muslim countries want our immediate withdrawal from Iraq. Three countries doing the fighting, training and rebuilding in Iraq have a slightly less strong opinion on immediate withdrawal.

But this was much less popular in Australia (22%), the US (24%) and the UK (27%), the countries with the most troops in Iraq.
The world speaks. I jeer.

C-C-G Adds: Just imagine the howling we'd hear if we pulled out of Iraq and the predicted bloodbath occurred. The US is in the unenviable position of being damned if we do and damned if we don't.

8.05.2007

Another Reason I Don't Trust Polls

If you've noticed, I do not blog about polls. The other bloggers here can, I have not made it an editorial policy not to, and have no intention of so doing; I just don't do it myself.

The reason is simple. I do not trust polls. Or, rather, I do not trust pollsters.

And now comes some more justification for my distrust:

When a New York Times poll found that the number of Americans who think it was right for the United States to go to war in Iraq rose from 35 percent in May to percent 42 percent in mid-July, rather than promptly report the new poll findings, the paper conducted another poll. As the Times' Janet Elder wrote Sunday, the increased support for the decision to go to war was "counterintuitive" and because it "could not be easily explained, the paper went back and did another poll on the very same subject."

Round Two found that 42 percent of voters think America was right to go into Iraq, while the percentage of those polled who said that it was wrong to go to war had fallen from 61 percent to 51 percent. The headline for Elder's piece read, "Same Question, Different Answer. Hmmm." But it should have read: "America's Paper of Record Out of Touch With American Public."

So why should I trust any poll? How can I tell if the pollster just ran one poll or kept trying until they got the answer they liked?