Fred's Lazy Campaign

Courtesy Jim Geraghty over at NRO's Campaign Spot, here is Fred's schedule for today:

WHAT: Fred Thompson Interviewed Live by John Roberts and Kiran Chetry on CNN's American Morning.
WHEN: 6:15 am CT
WHERE: CNN, Check your local listings.

WHAT: Fred Thompson Interviewed Live by Harry Smith on CBS's The Early Show.
WHEN: 7:00 am CT
WHERE: CBS, Check your local listings.

WHAT: Fred Thompson Interviewed Live by Brian Kilmeade, Steve Doocy, and Gretchen Carlson FOX's FOX & Friends.
WHEN: 7:35 am CT
WHERE: FOX News, Check your local listings.

WHAT: Fred Thompson Live Interview on Morning Report with Dan Kennedy.
WHEN: 8:20 am CT
WHERE: WOC 1420, Davenport
NOTE: Listen live at http://www.woc1420.com/main.html.

WHAT: Fred Thompson Live Interview on Schulte & Swann Morning Show.
WHEN: 8:35 am CT
WHERE: KZIA 102.9, Cedar Rapids
NOTE: Listen live at http://www.kzia.com/HOME/tabid/36/Default.aspx.

WHAT: Fred Thompson Interviewed Live by Tim Russert on MSNBC.
WHEN: 9:45 am CT
WHERE: MSNBC, Check your local listings.

WHAT: Fred Thompson Participates in Radio Town Hall with KFAB's Tom Becka
WHEN: 12:30 pm CT
WHERE: Quality Inn & Suites
3537 West Broadway (Hwy 6)
Council Bluffs, IA
NOTE: Doors open at 12:00 pm CT. Please pre-set all equipment by 12:10 pm.

WHAT: Fred Thompson Participates in Press Availability
WHEN: 1:15 pm CT
WHERE: Quality Inn & Suites
3537 West Broadway
Council Bluffs, IA

WHAT: Fred Thompson Live Interview on Mac's World
WHEN: 2:40 pm CT
WHERE: WOW 98.3, Des Moines
NOTE: Listen live at http://www.983wowfm.com/default.asp.

WHAT: Fred Thompson Live Interview on The Sean Hannity Show
WHEN: 3:05 pm CT
WHERE: Check Your Local Listings.
NOTE: Listen live at http://www.wabcradio.com/.

WHAT: Fred Thompson Interviewed Live by Wolf Blitzer on CNN's The Situation Room.
WHEN: 4:20 pm CT
WHERE: CNN, Check your local listings.

WHAT: Fred Thompson Live Interview on The Bob Bruce Radio Experience
WHEN: 4:40 pm CT
WHERE: WOW 98.3, Des Moines
NOTE: Listen live at http://www.983wowfm.com/default.asp.

With a schedule like that, how can anyone call anyone lazy?

Iowa Caucuses for Non-Wonks

If you want to know how the Iowa caucuses work--and if you care about who our next President is, you should--ya just gotta read the article linked in the title above. Here's a quick sample:

The trouble with the Iowa caucuses isn't that there's anything wrong with Iowans. It's the bizarre rules of the process. Caucuses are touted as authentic neighborhood meetings where voters gather in their precincts and make democracy come alive. In truth, they are anything but.

Caucuses occur only at a fixed time at night, so that many people working odd hours can't participate. They can easily exceed two hours. There are no absentee ballots, which means the process disfranchises the sick, shut-ins and people who are out of town on the day of the caucus. The Democratic caucuses require participants to stand in a corner with other supporters of their candidate. That eliminates the secret ballot.

There are reasons for all this. The caucuses are run by the state parties, and unlike primary or general elections aren't regulated by the government. They were designed as an insiders' game to attract party activists, donors and political junkies and give them a disproportionate influence in the process. In other words, they are designed not to be overly democratic. Primaries aren't perfect. but at least they make it fairly easy for everyone to vote, since polls are open all day and it takes only a few minutes to cast a ballot.

Little wonder that voter turnout for the Iowa caucuses is extremely low--in recent years about 6% of registered voters. Many potential voters will proclaim their civic virtue to pollsters and others and say they will show up at the caucus--and then find something else to do Thursday night.

And that's just the start.

Novak Sees Hope For Fred

The latest Evans-Novak Political Report has some interesting tidbits about Fred (bold in original):

Thompson has far more upside potential than any other Republican, and he is spending the entire final stretch in the Hawkeye State. Thompson has perhaps the most broadly conservative record of any candidate besides the three congressmen (see below). Many conservative Iowans currently settling for Romney, Giuliani or Huckabee (or planning a protest vote of sorts for one of the congressmen) could certainly jump on board with Thompson. If he defies his reputation as a lazy worker, he could make a spectacular surge here.

Huckabee's high poll numbers and big leads do not guarantee a victory. He has nowhere near the campaign team, organization or money of runner-up Romney. As media scrutiny is finally arriving, he could be in trouble. Still, he is likable, and his openness about his Christianity plays very well among some blocs in the GOP.

Many Iowa Republicans like Huckabee because he comes across as genuine, especially in comparison to Romney. This is soft support that could bail to Thompson if he rises or to another candidate if Huckabee's negatives continue to surface.

Immigration is a big issue for Iowa Republicans, and Huckabee's support of state-subsidized education for illegal immigrants hurts him. His big-government record turns off some voters but is not a factor for some of his core supporters.

Huckabee's dig at Mormons in Sunday's New York Times magazine has turned off some Republican voters as dirty, bigoted or just politically dumb. This is the sort of thing that could bring him down.

--snip--

This battle will hinge on Thompson's performance down the stretch. If he excels, he could draw down Huckabee's support significantly, and maybe Romney's, too. If Thompson is as uninspired as he has been to date, Huckabee will probably win.

The most likely result at this point appears to be a slight Thompson surge at Huckabee's expense, leaving Romney in first place and either Thompson or Huckabee in second. Leaning Romney.

In other words, don't count Fred out yet.

Fred Gambles

Fred, for good or for ill, has decided to risk everything on Iowa:

Des Moines, Iowa
FORMER TENNESSEE SENATOR Fred Thompson has decided to take his campaign and virtually all of its resources to Iowa in an all-or-nothing attempt to register a strong showing in the caucuses here on January 3. "We're getting ready to make this not only our second home, but our first home," he told a small gathering of supporters at the Polk County Convention Center on Friday night. Thompson and his wife Jeri chatted with the crowd before making their way through the exhibits at the Iowa Farm Bureau's annual meeting in downtown Des Moines.

Beginning Monday, December 17, Thompson will launch a bus tour that will take him throughout the state. From the beginning of that trip through caucus night, Thompson will essentially live in Iowa, taking only a one-day trip out of the state to celebrate Christmas at his home in Virginia.

This is kind of reminiscent of the way he first won his Senate seat, by hopping in an old pickup truck and touring Tennessee in it.

Let's hope his gamble pays off this time.

Huckabee and Expectations

As a Native American might say, Huckabee speaks with forked tongue. From an email from his campaign:

1. Expectations Management

There’s been a lot of buzz lately about “managing expectations” going into Iowa. I’m not sure about the other campaigns, but here at the Huckabee camp we expect to win—just as we expect to win the nomination and the general election. Apparantly, not everyone feels the same.

Jennifer Rubin from the American Spectator Blog quotes an interesting tidbit from the LA Times: "But in a sure sign of concern, the Romney camp has begun to raise the prospect of a second-place Iowa finish, insisting it would not hurt his chances in the contests that follow. 'It would be nice if Romney won,' said Doug Gross, an attorney overseeing Romney's Iowa campaign. 'If he finishes in the top two, he's fine.'"

Fine with second in Iowa? The Romney campaign dumped about $7 million into Iowa while we’ve spent, approximately, $327.00. Maybe they are satisfied with second but as fiscal conservatives we expect to get our money’s worth.

But later in the same email...

6. Tied for Second in NH

According to the latest Rasmussen Poll: "The new primary election poll shows a virtual three-way tie for second place between former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Senator John McCain at 15% and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee at 14%. For Giuliani and McCain, those figures are a very slight dip from earlier in the month while Huckabee has gained four more percentage points."

Please moderate your expectations accordingly.

Either the Huckabee campaign is being sarcastic at the end with the "Please moderate your expectations accordingly," or they're demonstrating a double-standard Hillary would be proud of. "Hah, hah, Romney is 'managing expectations,' now please excuse us while we do the same thing we just castigated him for doing."

Either way, I don't think that it will help the campaign much.

There Was a Debate Today?

Yes Virginia, there was. Who knew? I knew there was one scheduled for today, thinking it would be sometime this evening, and having every intention of looking it up and watching it online. Alas, it was held at 8:00 AM CST.

Who holds a debate on a Sunday at 8:00 o'clock in the morning? Apparently ABC. What was the purpose of holding it that time? I mean, it was 6:00 AM in California. Did they think they would get the getting ready to go to church crowd?

I would attribute the timing of this event as an effort to say that ABC held a GOP Presidential candidate debate and no one watched, except they are going to do it again for the democrats on Sunday, August 19, 2007. I can't find a time, but I'll presume it's the same time since it's moderator is Steph and suppose it's to capture his normal Sunday morning Boy George This Week audience.

Whatever the reason's for this selection of day and time, it was a bad idea. Unless of course your idea is to minimize the number of people who watch.